Reverse Martingale (Paroli)
The Paroli or Reverse Martingale is a very easy-to-use positive progression system that aims to limit the risk of losing big bets, as is the case with negative progression strategies such as the Classic Martingale. or the Fibonacci system.
When in the classic martingale, the principle is to increase the bets after each loss, in the Paroli the rule is reversed, the bet is increased after wins. You guessed it, you have to set a limit before starting otherwise you lose everything each time because you can not continue to win indefinitely.
Rules of the Paroli
Although it can be applied to any type of betting; sports, horse racing or even in trading, The Paroli betting system is popular in casinos and more particularly in roulette with simple bets (red / black, odd / even pair …).
Three simple rules :
- Multiply the bet after each win. In a classic roulette case where the odds are 2* (+100), the player should double his bet after each win.
- Continue as long as you win, and stop at the imposed limit, usually 3
- In case of loss, return to a basic bet unit
In this example simulated on GSimulator, played Odds are 2 (US +100), probability 50% and the bet unit is $10 :
|#||Cost ($)||Result||Win ($)||Bankroll ($)||Stop limit|
|1||– 10||+ 10||10||1|
|2||– 20||+ 20||30||2|
|3||– 40||+ 40||70||3|
|4||– 80||0||– 10||STOP|
|5||– 10||+ 10||0||1|
|6||– 20||+ 20||20||2|
|7||– 40||+ 40||60||3|
|8||– 80||+ 80||140||STOP|
- In this example, and following the first win, the player continues to bet what he has won every time.
- The limit being 3, we play one last time following the third win hoping to win a fourth time. In this case, it was a loss, the gambler loses everything he has won so far and starts again.
- Following the fourth consecutive win in the eighth round, the profit is not replayed this time. The gambler starts again at a base bet unit.
Benefits and risks
The Paroli has two advantages, it is very simple to use, and there is no risk of losing large amounts of money as in the classic Martingale.
Unfortunately, this betting system has major disadvantage, it assumes that a series of 3 successes will be frequent, which is rarely the case in real conditions. Certainly, the damage will not be very big, but with many repetitions, a continuous profit is very difficult to maintain. Using smaller odds such as in sports betting (football, basketball, baseball, hockey, tennis …) can increase the chances of going on positive series.
But paradoxically, smaller odds mean minimal profit. It is also possible to change the stop limit parameter and increase it to 4 or 5, but betting all what we have won following a serie of 4 successes is mentally very difficult to manage in real conditions.
GSimulator allows a simulation of the Paroli betting system for a very large repetition of bets in real conditions and by adjusting all the parameters of the bets (starting bet, odds other than 2, number of repetitions or the limit of the bankroll). It also provides the tools to analyze results and compare cost differences with other strategies.
Start a free simulation of the Reverse Martingale (Paroli) strategy in the GSimulator or consult the documentation for more informations.
Other betting systems
Other strategies and betting systems exist and try to limit the losses, or to increase the profit, by making changes to the rules of stakes following the losses (negative progression) or following the wins (positive progression) :
- Classic Martingale
Increase stake after every loss
- Great Martingale
Increase stake + unit bet, after every loss
- Fibonacci (Whittacker)
Increase and decrease stake based on the Fibonacci sequence
Increase stakes after a loss, descrease after a win
- Contra d’Alembert
Increase stakes after a win, descrease after a loss
Remove first and last number in the Labouchere sequence after a win, add the last bet to the sequence after a loss
- Reverse Labouchère
Remove first and last number in the Labouchere sequence after a loss, add the last bet to the sequence after a win